Bihar’s first phase surprises with unprecedented voter energy

As Bihar gears up for the first phase of the 2025 Assembly elections, new data from the past decade shows a silent transformation. Rural Bihar has been turning out in record numbers, while urban areas—especially Patna—are showing the opposite trend. With 121 constituencies voting on November 6, this contrast tells a deeper story about participation, engagement, and what really motivates voters in the state.

Rural Bihar leads the charge

When voters in Muzaffarpur’s Minapur constituency go to the polls, they’ll continue a proud tradition of active participation. For the last three elections, Minapur has recorded turnout rates above 60 per cent, one of the highest in the state. Just 100 kilometres away, in Patna’s Kumhrar, voter enthusiasm tells a very different story—turnout there was only 35.3 per cent in 2020, the lowest among all Phase 1 constituencies.

This pattern highlights Bihar’s growing urban-rural divide. Rural districts are leading a quiet revolution in voter engagement, while urban centres are falling behind. Between 2010 and 2020, the average voter turnout across all Phase 1 constituencies rose from 52.1 per cent to 56.1 per cent—a modest four-point increase overall, but one that hides an impressive trend. Out of 121 seats, 112 saw higher turnout in 2020 compared to 2010, showing how consistent the growth has been.

Even the pandemic could not stop this momentum. In 2015, the turnout was 55.9 per cent, and despite COVID-19 restrictions, it stayed at 56.1 per cent in 2020. This shows that voters in many areas of Bihar, especially rural ones, are becoming more determined to make their voices heard.

Districts tell their own stories

Among all districts, Darbhanga stands out as the symbol of this change. In 2010, it had one of the lowest average turnouts in Phase 1 at 47.6 per cent. By 2020, that figure had jumped to 56.4 per cent—an 8.8 percentage point increase. Every single constituency in Darbhanga saw a rise:

• Gaura Bauram: from 46.3% to 57.2% (+10.9)

• Alinagar: from 47.3% to 57.4% (+10)

• Hayaghat: from 49.4% to 59.1% (+9.7)

• Keoti: from 46.7% to 56.4% (+9.7)

• Jale: from 44.6% to 54.1% (+9.5)

All five of the fastest-growing constituencies in Phase 1 are from Darbhanga. The district’s surge shows how local mobilisation and awareness can create lasting changes in participation.

In contrast, Muzaffarpur’s story is about consistency at a high level. It has been Bihar’s most engaged district for three elections in a row, with an average turnout of 59.8 per cent—nearly 10 points above the overall average. The five constituencies with the highest turnout in 2020 all came from Muzaffarpur: Minapur, Bochaha, Kurhani, Kanti, and Sakra, all above 63 per cent. What makes this more impressive is that these seats aren’t particularly safe for any one party—they are genuinely competitive.

Patna, however, shows the other side of the coin. The state capital has some of the lowest turnouts in the state, and the numbers are declining. Kumhrar dropped from 37.3 per cent in 2010 to 35.3 per cent in 2020. Bankipur fell from 36.9 per cent to 35.9 per cent, while Digha dipped to 36.9 per cent. Urban voters, it seems, are losing interest even as rural voters are getting more engaged. The divide is striking—while Muzaffarpur’s rural seats cross 60 per cent turnout, Patna’s urban core barely manages 36 per cent.

The myths behind turnout

It’s often believed that close elections drive higher voter turnout. But Bihar’s data tells a different story. In 2020, seats with bigger winning margins actually recorded higher turnout rates. The correlation between victory margin and turnout was negative (-0.169), showing that competitiveness isn’t the main factor.

For example, Hilsa in Nalanda was the closest race in 2020, decided by just 12 votes. Yet, its turnout was only around 55 per cent, below the average. Meanwhile, Minapur and Bochaha, where margins were comfortable, topped the turnout charts again. This pattern has held across multiple elections, meaning that what drives turnout is not competitiveness—it’s something deeper, such as local mobilisation, caste networks, and the community’s culture of voting.

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What to expect this time

Based on the trends of the past decade, analysts expect the Phase 1 turnout this year to be around 56–57 per cent, slightly higher than 2020. Muzaffarpur’s high-performing seats are likely to continue crossing 60 per cent. Darbhanga’s impressive growth looks stable, with all its constituencies now comfortably in the 55–58 per cent range. But Patna’s urban centres will probably continue to struggle, with no major signs of improvement.

Even high-profile contests—like Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary’s seat in Tarapur or Tejashwi Yadav’s in Raghopur—are not expected to boost turnout much. Bihar’s history shows that voter mobilisation, not competition, is what truly brings people to the polling booth.

The bigger question isn’t just how much Bihar is voting, but who is driving the change. Why did Darbhanga’s turnout grow by nearly nine points while nearby Madhepura’s rose only by two? Why does Muzaffarpur stay ahead year after year? And why have cities like Patna stopped showing up?

The answers likely lie outside the election data—in social and economic factors like migration, education, local leadership, and awareness campaigns. Rural voters may feel a stronger connection to local issues, while urban residents, often more mobile and less rooted, may feel detached from state politics.

Still, one thing is clear: on November 6, rural Bihar will once again show up in large numbers. Urban Bihar, however, may continue to sit out. And the growing gap between these two worlds could shape not just the 2025 election, but the future of Bihar’s democracy itself.